Christchurch 2001


10 January 2001 – 12 January 2001

Christchurch School of Medicine

New Zealand



PAWS – Population Analysis WorkShop

Come and learn about Bayesian approaches to population modelling. How does it compare with NONMEM? Presented by Dr Stephen Duffull (University of Queensland) and Dr Nick Holford (University of Auckland).

“GIBBS stands for Grossly Inefficient Bayesian BullShit” A. Racine-Poon

Wednesday January 10th

09.00-10.30     A beginners guide to Bayesian philosophy and hierarchical modelling
10.30-11.00     Coffee/Tea
11.00-12.30     Hands on PKBUGS  (ondansetron example)
12.30-13.30     Lunch
13.30-14:30     How to write models in WinBUGS (ondansetron example)
14:30-15:00    Coffee/Tea
15.00-16:00     NONMEM and Bayes
Posthoc and FOCE empirical Bayes estimates
PRIOR subroutine
16.00-17.00     General discussion

Thursday January 11th

09:00-10:30     Hands on using PRIOR with NONMEM
Creating a NM-TRAN control stream and PRIOR.FOR
10:30-11:00     Coffee/tea break
11:00-11:45     Model selection using Bayesian and NONMEM methods
11:45-12:30     Comparison of NONMEM and WinBUGS/PKBUGS
12.30-13.30     Lunch

Presentations on the Population approach. Come share your experiences in this area, and present either a paper or poster presentations. Contact Carl Kirkpatrick ([email protected]) or Nick Holford ([email protected]) for further details.

Thursday January 11th

13:30-15:00    Poster Presentations
15:00-15:30    Coffee/Tea
15:30-16:30    PAGANZ Future Directions

Friday January 12th

09:00-09:45    Dr Stephen Duffull    To be announced
09:45-10:30    Dr Nick Holford        “Using NONMEM for Clinical Trial Simulation”
10:30-11:00      Coffee/tea break
11:00-11:45      Dr Diane Mould         To be announced
11:45-12:30     Dr Rohan Rasiah        “Kinetidex 2.0 Bayesian Forecaster”
12.30-13.30     Lunch
13:30-15:00    Oral Presentations
15:00-15:30    Coffee/Tea

Please see the Accommodation details and make your own arrangments.

Biographical Sketches of Participating Faculty

Stephen Duffull

Dr Duffull obtained his undergraduate pharmacy qualifications in New Zealand in 1985.  He then worked predominantly in the Department of Clinical Pharmacology at Christchurch Hospital.  During this time he completed a Masters Degree in Clinical Pharmacy at the University of Otago (NZ) in 1993 and a PhD in Clinical Pharmacokinetics from the University of Otago in 1997.  Dr Duffull then spent two years in the School of Pharmacy at the University of Manchester (UK) as a post-doctoral research fellow, during which time he developed an interest in optimal design and clinical trial simulation.  Recently he has taken up a position in the School of Pharmacy, University of Queensland (Australia) as a Lecturer.  His main research interest involves pharmacometrics particularly study design and population analyses using Bayesian approaches.

Nick Holford

Dr Holford obtained his medical qualifications (MB. ChB., MRCP) in the United Kingdom He worked at UC San Francisco from 1975-1983 initially as a Fellow in Clinical Pharmacology and subsequently as a Faculty member. During this period he developed an interest in the quantitative aspects of clinical pharmacology and developed software for pharmacokinetic-dynamic analysis. His computer program MKMODEL has been published and used worldwide since 1985. In 1983 he moved to Auckland, New Zealand to take up an appointment in the Department of Pharmacology and Clinical Pharmacology, University of Auckland. Until 1989 he had a part time appointment as a Specialist in Internal Medicine at Auckland Hospital. During this period he was elected a Fellow of the Royal Australasian College of Physicians. In 1990 he had a 9 month sabbatical leave at Hoffmann-La Roche, Basel, Switzerland where he was involved in developing a population approach to clinical pharmacology in the drug development process. More recently he has been involved in the development of a multimedia teaching program on the clinical pharmacologicalaspects of drug development (RIDO). A major commitment has been made to the development of a clinical trials simulation and analysis system and Dr Holford is a member of the Scientific Advisory Board for Pharsight Inc. Dr Holford was on sabbatical in 1998 and worked on a variety of projects related to disease progress modelling and clinical trial simulation. He is currently involved in describing the effects of anti-Parkinsonian agents on the progression of Parkinsons’s disease. In 1995 he was invited to be a founding member of the Center for Drug Development Science Scientific Advisory Board. The CDDS is based at Georgetown University, Washington DC and is concerned with promoting research and teaching on the scientific basis of drug development. Dr Holford is currently an Associate Professor at the University of Auckland. He is co-editor of The In Vivo Study of Drug Action and the recently published 4th edition of Avery’s Drug Treatment. He has been consulting editor for Clinical Pharmacokinetics since 1995. He has developed tools for helping to use NONMEM “Wings for NONMEM” which are freely available for downloading.

Diane Mould

Dr. Mould graduated from Stevens Institute of Technology in 1984 with a BS in Chemical Engineering and Chemical Biology.  She then attended the Ohio State University, where was awarded an AFPE Fellowship and an Academic Challenge Fellowship, and obtained a PhD in Pharmaceutics and  Pharmaceutical Chemistry in 1989.  After graduation, she worked with Dr. Tom Ludden at The University of Texas at San Antonio to learn the population approach to pharmacokinetic modeling.  She is a member of several scientific societies including Rho Chi, Sigma Xi, Phi Kappa Phi, AAPS and ASCPT.  She has published 13 articles and 2 book chapters on pharmacokinetics and pharmacokinetic/dynamic modeling.  Her research interests include XAFS analysis, QSAR + AI for molecular modeling, and population PK and PK/PD analysis.  She is recently moved from SmithKline-Beecham Pharmaceuticals where she was an assistant director in the department of Drug Metabolism and Pharmacokinetics to a position as Associate Professor of Pharmacology at the Center for Drug Development Science, Georgetown University, Washington DC, USA.